In-situ measurements of particles and
fields upstream of the Earth provide
the ultimate basis for testing the
success of solar-observation-based
space weather models. The extent to
which the models agree with
observations of solar wind stream
structure, transients, and energetic
particle populations, determines
whether we can make accurate
forecasts from 27 days (one solar
rotation) to several days ahead.
The top image is of WIND spacecraft
data, including the Berkeley 3-D
plasma experiment solar wind
parameters and the Goddard Space
Flight Center interplanetary magnetic
field components. This approximately
2-day long time series includes the 10
January 1997 magnetic cloud
transient associated with the halo
CME observed on SOHO on 6
January. The lower image is of the
ACE Real Time Solar Wind data for a
recent three-day period, and includes
a computed Dst geomagnetic index
estimate based on these
measurements. Both of these data
sets, as well as the ISEE-3 and IMP-8
archived data, provide the ultimate test
for the space weather prediction
potential of our solar-based models.
While spacecraft measurements
upstream of Earth will always provide
the most accurate space weather
forecasts, the longer range predictions
(from 27-day solar rotation, to
several-day storm warning scales)
can only be made on a regular basis
using solar observations and models.
Click on the images to the left to enlarge.
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